Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
